The Election of 2020

After some research, I have concluded that Donald J. Trump is most likely going to win the election of 2020.

Trump is not going to win a supermajority of delegates like how Nixon and Reagan performed in the elections of 1972 and 1984, respectively. The elections of 1968 and 1980 suggested that they would win a supermajority of delegates, whereas there were no indicators in the aftermath of the election of 2016. Therefore, I've decided that there are 13 "toss-up" states that are up for grabs in 2020. I used every election since 1992 to determine which states are "toss-ups"; states that voted for both parties but generally aligned with one party are considered toss-ups. I also included the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska and the 2nd Congressional District of Maine; the former voted for Obama in 2008, while the latter voted for Trump in 2016, even though they normally vote for Republicans and Democrats, respectively. Overall, I was generous in my decision-making, which led me to the following scenario:


Hence, this following map is the most ideal scenario for Republicans:


This following map is the most ideal scenario for Democrats:


Under the assumption that Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic primary, which the polls below currently indicate, and in leveraging the poll statistics of the election of 2016, I've concluded that this following map is the most likely scenario for 2020:


My prediction:


In my prediction, I only altered the map of 2016 in two ways. I transferred Pennsylvania to the Democrats as well as the 2nd Congressional District of Maine. I changed the 2nd Congressional District because I see it as an outlier in its usual trend, and I changed Pennsylvania because the Real Clear Politics ("RCP") average in 2016 in Pennsylvania showed the Democrats 2.1 points ahead of Trump, while Trump ended up winning with 0.7 points. The RCP average thus far in 2020 shows the Democrats 4 points ahead of Trump, which a margin of 0.7 points would not compensate for.

Pennsylvania in 2016:


Pennsylvania in 2020:


The opposite appears true in Michigan and Florida, which are two of the most competitive states in the election. In Michigan, the RCP average showed Hillary well ahead of Trump in the primary stage of 2016, but in the primary stage of 2020, Trump has a significant lead ahead of all Democrats (i.e., relative to 2016).

Michigan in 2016:


Michigan in the primary stage of 2020:


Similarly, in Florida in 2016:


Florida in the primary stage of 2020:


The reason I speak in terms of "Democrats" and "Republicans" is because elections are generally determined based not on the public's perception of a particular candidate, but rather the public's perception of a particular party. Allan Lichtman provides great evidence in his "15 Keys to the White House": https://atwar-game.com/forum/topic.php?topic_id=41781

Texas is going to go blue. The midwest delegates no longer matter.

Escrito por Tundy, 22.02.2020 at 09:08

Texas is going to go blue. The midwest delegates no longer matter.

Eventually it will. This election it probably won't (the Beto vs Cruz race was close, but Beto only got that many votes due to strong voter turnout for him and also some unpopularity for Cruz). The increasing number of Hispanic voters, who tend to vote Democrat at 70% (this percentage may even have a slight increase due to anti-Hispanic policies and sentiment by Trump), will eventually turn the tide and turn Texas blue.

Update:



Trump is more likely to win Pennsylvania.

Are you a psephologist ?

NEVERMIND ALL OF MY PREDICTIONS ARE WRONG. I AM A FAILURE AT LIFE

Trump wins again, bernie close second.
Meh if bernie wins he might die while being president hes too old.

Escrito por 4nic Smith, 05.03.2020 at 20:38

Trump wins again, bernie close second.
Meh if bernie wins he might die while being president hes too old.

Wed probably shoot him first.

Escrito por Helly, 05.03.2020 at 21:20

Escrito por 4nic Smith, 05.03.2020 at 20:38

Trump wins again, bernie close second.
Meh if bernie wins he might die while being president hes too old.

Wed probably shoot him first.

Not you though, you are harmless.

Escrito por Helly, 05.03.2020 at 21:20

Escrito por 4nic Smith, 05.03.2020 at 20:38

Trump wins again, bernie close second.
Meh if bernie wins he might die while being president hes too old.

Wed probably shoot him first.

Did you just threaten to kill a potential president?

Escrito por Tribune Aquila, 05.03.2020 at 17:07

NEVERMIND ALL OF MY PREDICTIONS ARE WRONG. I AM A FAILURE AT LIFE

you are right for this one

Escrito por avatar, 06.03.2020 at 13:00

Escrito por Tribune Aquila, 05.03.2020 at 17:07

NEVERMIND ALL OF MY PREDICTIONS ARE WRONG. I AM A FAILURE AT LIFE

you are right for this one

No, look at supertuesday

Escrito por 4nic Smith, 05.03.2020 at 22:20

Escrito por Helly, 05.03.2020 at 21:20

Escrito por 4nic Smith, 05.03.2020 at 20:38

Trump wins again, bernie close second.
Meh if bernie wins he might die while being president hes too old.

Wed probably shoot him first.

Not you though, you are harmless.

Correct just a key board warrior

Escrito por Witch-Doctor, 06.03.2020 at 00:57

Escrito por Helly, 05.03.2020 at 21:20

Escrito por 4nic Smith, 05.03.2020 at 20:38

Trump wins again, bernie close second.
Meh if bernie wins he might die while being president hes too old.

Wed probably shoot him first.

Did you just threaten to kill a potential president?

If you fuck people over you hang period. That is how civilization has always handled liars, cheats, and vagabonds.

I like trum

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 14:47

Escrito por Witch-Doctor, 06.03.2020 at 00:57

Escrito por Helly, 05.03.2020 at 21:20

Escrito por 4nic Smith, 05.03.2020 at 20:38

Trump wins again, bernie close second.
Meh if bernie wins he might die while being president hes too old.

Wed probably shoot him first.

Did you just threaten to kill a potential president?

If you fuck people over you hang period. That is how civilization has always handled liars, cheats, and vagabonds.

Wow perfectly reasonable person with no mental issues whatsoever.

Escrito por Witch-Doctor, 06.03.2020 at 17:11

Wow perfectly reasonable person with no mental issues whatsoever.

I find Hellxaxer funny af. he's meme tier but shitty one irl fail

Escrito por SuperiorCacaocow, 06.03.2020 at 17:46

Escrito por Witch-Doctor, 06.03.2020 at 17:11

Wow perfectly reasonable person with no mental issues whatsoever.

I find Hellxaxer funny af. he's meme tier but shitty one irl fail

You love me dont lie cow.

Escrito por Witch-Doctor, 06.03.2020 at 17:11

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 14:47

Escrito por Witch-Doctor, 06.03.2020 at 00:57

Escrito por Helly, 05.03.2020 at 21:20

Escrito por 4nic Smith, 05.03.2020 at 20:38

Trump wins again, bernie close second.
Meh if bernie wins he might die while being president hes too old.

Wed probably shoot him first.

Did you just threaten to kill a potential president?

If you fuck people over you hang period. That is how civilization has always handled liars, cheats, and vagabonds.

Wow perfectly reasonable person with no mental issues whatsoever.

You seem to misunderstand me. Let me try again. If he becomes president and fucks over this country, its people, and its way of life, for his own agenda/greed, the natural reaction of the disenfranchised is execution. That is not me making a threat, thats not me pulling the trigger or hanging the noose as your trying to portray me as saying. That is my observation as an observer of history and the nature of man.

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 19:10

Escrito por SuperiorCacaocow, 06.03.2020 at 17:46

Escrito por Witch-Doctor, 06.03.2020 at 17:11

Wow perfectly reasonable person with no mental issues whatsoever.

I find Hellxaxer funny af. he's meme tier but shitty one irl fail

You love me dont lie cow.

I like the fact that you seem to have accepted your status as FG so there's that.
But you try to seem smart which is annoying.

Escrito por SuperiorCacaocow, 06.03.2020 at 19:17

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 19:10

Escrito por SuperiorCacaocow, 06.03.2020 at 17:46

Escrito por Witch-Doctor, 06.03.2020 at 17:11

Wow perfectly reasonable person with no mental issues whatsoever.

I find Hellxaxer funny af. he's meme tier but shitty one irl fail

You love me dont lie cow.

I like the fact that you seem to have accepted your status as FG so there's that.
But you try to seem smart which is annoying.

Perhaps, just maybe i am smart, and i mess with people on here because i am a shitty human being that likes to see which way he can twist a person today.

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 19:21

Perhaps, just maybe i am smart, and i mess with people on here because i am a shitty human being that likes to see which way he can twist a person today.

No you aren't. I can tell because you write in that cringy wannabe smart way children do when they're twelve and online.

Escrito por SuperiorCacaocow, 06.03.2020 at 19:42

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 19:21

Perhaps, just maybe i am smart, and i mess with people on here because i am a shitty human being that likes to see which way he can twist a person today.

No you aren't. I can tell because you write in that cringy wannabe smart way children do when they're twelve and online.

Hey i could say the same thing, damn its almost like we dont know shit here, just the facade we show each other. Ask tunder or garde they know me better then anyone else. I come on here to fuck with liberals, as i like to figure out human psychology. What reaction you get when you say thing A) what reaction when you refrence B) and so on. Atwar has been the place i engaged in social experiments in for years. You get the the version of myself i give you thats it. But i aint getting much engagement anymore here, so the cats out of the bag now. I geuss nostalgia is why i keep coming back at this point. Would you like to see my player profiles collection

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 20:11

Escrito por SuperiorCacaocow, 06.03.2020 at 19:42

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 19:21

Perhaps, just maybe i am smart, and i mess with people on here because i am a shitty human being that likes to see which way he can twist a person today.

No you aren't. I can tell because you write in that cringy wannabe smart way children do when they're twelve and online.

Hey i could say the same thing, damn its almost like we dont know shit here, just the facade we show each other. Ask tunder or garde they know me better then anyone else. I come on here to fuck with liberals, as i like to figure out human psychology. What reaction you get when you say thing A) what reaction when you refrence B) and so on. Atwar has been the place i engaged in social experiments in for years. You get the the version of myself i give you thats it. But i aint getting much engagement anymore here, so the cats out of the bag now. I geuss nostalgia is why i keep coming back at this point. Would you like to see my player profiles collection

tl;dr
also case in point

ps: i told you before to learn the difference between 'than' and 'then'

Escrito por SuperiorCacaocow, 06.03.2020 at 20:22

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 20:11

Escrito por SuperiorCacaocow, 06.03.2020 at 19:42

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 19:21

Perhaps, just maybe i am smart, and i mess with people on here because i am a shitty human being that likes to see which way he can twist a person today.

No you aren't. I can tell because you write in that cringy wannabe smart way children do when they're twelve and online.

Hey i could say the same thing, damn its almost like we dont know shit here, just the facade we show each other. Ask tunder or garde they know me better then anyone else. I come on here to fuck with liberals, as i like to figure out human psychology. What reaction you get when you say thing A) what reaction when you refrence B) and so on. Atwar has been the place i engaged in social experiments in for years. You get the the version of myself i give you thats it. But i aint getting much engagement anymore here, so the cats out of the bag now. I geuss nostalgia is why i keep coming back at this point. Would you like to see my player profiles collection

tl;dr
also case in point

ps: i told you before to learn the difference between 'than' and 'then'

Piss off xD

Edit: you have a unique ability to legitimately annoy me and i love it bb.

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 20:25

Piss off xD

nice intellectual

Escrito por SuperiorCacaocow, 06.03.2020 at 20:26

Escrito por Helly, 06.03.2020 at 20:25

Piss off xD

nice intellectual

Got to keep it simple you dont like to read four sentences.

I think it is going to be Trump vs Joe Biden. Joe Biden will be running with Mitchell Obama as a last second mate (Joe is insane but she will be there if/when he dies to take his place). This appointment will be made last second so that she will be able to go under the radar and avoid being indicted. In any case, Trump will win this guaranteed.

Escrito por Lord Aragorn, 10.05.2020 at 20:59

I think it is going to be Trump vs Joe Biden. Joe Biden will be running with Mitchell Obama as a last second mate (Joe is insane but she will be there if/when he dies to take his place). This appointment will be made last second so that she will be able to go under the radar and avoid being indicted. In any case, Trump will win this guaranteed.

This thread doesn't apply anymore because of COVID-19, I might update it later.

This virus changed the entire political landscape and my predictions no longer apply.